Virginia Centrist

Advice for Dems:

Bash him a bunch, highlight his opposition to abortion and his support for the police state, then for God sakes, quickly confirm him! Bush nominated an even-tempered conservative who is a nice fellow. He’s John Roberts Part II. You won’t win this one in the court of public opinion, largely because you won’t convince anyone that Roe is in jeopardy because it’s not. Kennedy’s shift to the left will keep Roe alive (and furthermore, it’s unclear whether Roberts would even vote to overturn it). First trimester abortion rights are not threatened, but popular restrictions like a partial birth ban and spousal notification are threatened.

Personally, I’m rooting for Roe to be overturned. But that’s because I’m a sick calculating partisan bastard. I want it overturned for the same reason that Karl Rove doesn’t want it overturned (also a sick calculating partisan bastard) - it would unleash a Democratic landslide like we’ve never seen. Hey Republicans: Want to create an issue for Democrats to run on in ‘08 or at the state level? Overturn Roe v. Wade…see what happens…

Final thing for Democrats: Elections matter. If you stop nominating liberal losers like John Kerry, then maybe you’ll get to pick a Supreme Court Justice! Until then: forget it.

Newsflash: When the Republicans repeat the talking point, “We confirmed Ginsberg by a 90 to whatever vote”, THEY HAVE A POINT.

I’m not ruling out using the filibuster. In fact, I think that the Roe discussion changes the calculus completely. If it was clear that a Supreme Court pick would result in the overturning of Roe, I could understand a filibuster, because sending abortion to the states would fundamentally change America and I can understand Democrats using drastic parliamentary tactics to try to stop things from happening.

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I have to say this…

We don’t have enough good Virginia Democratic bloggers out there. We just don’t. Most of my daily blog reading consists of Republican blogs…there are more of them out there, they update them more often, and they interact with each other better…I’m starting to worry that this is subtly tilting my views to the right. A week ago I wondered to myself, “was that tax increase really necessary?” And just yesterday I decided to “support the troops”. See, they’re starting to brainwash me!

I enjoy the few Democratic bloggers that are out there. But we don’t have enough. If you know any Democrats who want to blog about something marginally interesting (not voter fraud, please…) let me know.

And to you Republicans who have found your way back here: I promise to bash liberals a minimum of twice a week if you promise to not post your typical blather to the effect of, “You’re not a Centrist, you’re obviously a far-left nut job because you don’t support Bill Bolling!!!”

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I can’t say I disagree with Lowell on Dailykos:

Is Daily Kos “ultra liberal?” Uh, yah!! Don’t believe me, then check out this Pew poll and note the differences between “Dean activists” (basically, synonymous with the Kossacks) and “all Dems” (the vast majority of Dems). For instance, just 27% of “all Dems” say they’re “liberal,” compared to 82% of “Dean activists.” Only 38% of “all Dems” support gay marriage, compared to 91% of “Dean activists.” In other words, there’s a HUGE disconnect between “Dean activists”/Kossacks and “all Dems.” A few others?

* 59% of “Dean activists” profess “no religion” or “other.” This compares to just 15% of “All Dems” in those categories

*More than nine-in-ten Dean activists (92%) are white and just 1% are African American. Over one-in-five Democrats (22%) are African Americans.”

*Only 19% of Dean Activists believe Pre-emptive Force is “often/sometimes justified.” In contrast, 44% of “All Dems” believe that.

The bottom line: Dean activists are far more rich, white, secular, liberal, gay (twice as high a percentage), educated (twice as high a percentage with some college), and anti-war than “all Dems.”

The lesson here? Liberals quite often forget who makes up the majority of their party…

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Read this.

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Check out Will Vehrs’ excellent recap of the Larry Sabato/Center for Politics post-election luncheon at the Richmond Marriott. The luncheon featured both the Kaine and Kilgore campaign managers breaking down the race.

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Well, I’m back. After a long break from blogging, it’s time to get back to it. The election and my full time job took most of my free time, and I didn’t want to spend a single second wasting time on the internet when I could be contacting voters (the only thing that matters in these elections).

My analysis of the statewide races is simple:

1. Kaine convinced people he was Warner, and Kilgore was simply not a very strong candidate. He could not excite his base and could not convince NOVA voters that he was a moderate.
2. Byrne was a liberal, but she fared better than expected because she was the only woman on the ticket and because she ran an AMAZING campaign. I was really impressed by her effort, and she definitely won me over. I still maintain, however, that Chap would have beaten Bolling by 15-20 points…
3. McDonnell was too strong of a candidate for even Creigh Deeds, the Democrats’ “dream candidate” from the SW.

A few lessons from this election:
1. Illegal immigration is not a viable political issue in Virginia.
2. The death penalty is not a viable political issue in Virginia.
3. People are still wary of the false promises of the Gilmore wing of the Republican party.

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