Cowboys lose
Posted on November 25th, 2005 by admin
Redskins still need to win out…
Ok, some wacko Democrat who is friends with Shayna Englin (wife of David Englin) is posting on here taunting me because my good friend Greg Werkheiser lost November 8th. I’ve also got a Shayna detractor posting attacks. Very mature, but not as entertaining as it could be! I hate to do this, because I don’t even want to write about this, but here you go:
The person’s main claim is that Shayna Englin personally won the following races:
1. David Marsden over Michael Golden
2. David Poisson over Dick Black
3. David Bulova over John Mason
I spoke to some friends who worked hard in these races, and one laughed so hard that she was forced to put down the phone.
The Englins ran a bit of phone banking and lent a few volunteers to campaigns. That’s basically all they did. It’s unlikely that it had more than a minimal effect on any of these races. In fact, Werkheiser had more than enough volunteers and probably saturated his district with voter contact anyway.
The second claim of this crazy person is that Greg Werkheiser “blew” his election.
This is so laughable that I don’t know where to start. Ask any Dave Albo fan (and there are plenty of him out there, he’s a pretty nice guy) what they think about this claim, and you’ll find that Dave Albo started 25 points up with an approval rating above 60%! He’s a very very popular incumbent, and it was probably crazy to challenge him in the first place! The wacko who is posting on here doesn’t seem to understand the difference between far-right Dick Black who has huge negatives and Dave Albo who has a moderate home town image - or between an open seat and an incumbent, for that matter.
PS: I put up this thread for Werkheiser promoters and Shayna promoters to duke it out (without personal attacks on Shayna or anyone else, which I have deleted from other threads). Please stay out of the rest of my threads, or you will be deleted.
According to my sources, John Marshall will not run for LG in ‘09. Marshall is the current Secretary of Public Safety with an impressive bio.
Who does that leave for the Democrats statewide? The list of potential candidates includes the following (and probably a few others):
David Englin
Brian Moran
Bobby Scott
Creigh Deeds
Steve Shannon
Chap Petersen
Viola Baskerville
John Grisham
Of all of those, my favorite is Steve Shannon.
Not thinking much about politics right now. Just football. Hoping that the Dallas Cowboys self-destruct.
Remember Leon Lett’s Thanksgiving goof against the Dolphins years ago?
This discussion over at Commonwealth Conservative really cracked me up…particularly this comment:
I nominate Delegate Rapp from the Yorktown district. I met her during the GOTV effort and was totally blown away. I don’t think I’ve ever met anyone as on top of things and full of fire. She’d make a VERY intimidating candidate for whoever the dims put up in 2009
I hope to God this was intended to be a joke - particularly considering the fact that the GOP has about 50-60 potential candidates for statewide office who are better suited than Rapp.
Ok, I exaggerated a bit. It’s more like 150-200 potential candidates.
I’ve kept pretty quiet about Allen’s chances in ‘08 for a while now. I’ve been shopping the idea around to some friends on Capitol Hill, and their unanimous bipartisan reaction is the following:
“ARE YOU KIDDING ME???”
None of these people are from Virginia, but their impression of him is that he’s a lightweight (mentally and in the Senate), that he’s a pretty poor speaker, and that I’m trapped inside of a Virginia politics bubble. No one cares about this guy outside of the state!
Let me say that I loath George Allen. There is no other politician besides George W. Bush that I hate more. I think he was one of the worst Governors in Virginia history. He filled the executive branch with his “goonies”, “henchmen” and “lackeys”.
But my own feelings and the analysis of my Hill friends aside, I still think he’d be a strong conservative candidate for President. He says the right things to please the Republican base, and his “affable” personality can convince many moderates that he’s not a far right guy.
Allen has two problems:
1. If he runs nationally, the Democrats will use the confederate flag issue to call him a racist. This won’t help him…
2. The prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency will scare conservatives into nominating a moderate
Most conservative elites (see: bloggers, pundits, politicos) realize that Hillary Clinton resembles John Kerry more than her husband. Most admit that she can win, but not by much.
However, amongst the conservative base, Hillary Clinton is feared. These people are paranoid and panicked about the prospect of a Hillary Clinton presidency. She’s the Hildabeast from the East. Stopping her assent to power is more important than outlawing abortion, keeping gays from marrying, or any other conservative issue. She is their #1 concern in ‘08. Ask a arch-conservative about abortion. They’ll get angry and tell you it’s murder. Then ask them how they’d feel if Hillary Clinton was elected president. Blood will come out of their ears.
Because of this passion and fear on the Right, I’m open to the idea that even the most diehard conservatives in the Republican base will become pragmatic and decide to turn to a moderate as their nominee in ‘08. I’m talking about McCain or Rudy.
Both of these guys are really good friends, and I honestly doubt that both will run for the nomination. They’ll work it out and one or the other will run. Either one of these guys would automatically win the presidency in the general election in a huge landslide.
If the Republicans are reeling after an ‘06 midterm loss, this will add to to McCain and Rudy’s chances.
He doesn’t care.
There has been plenty of navel gazing amongst Republicans for the past two weeks, but what about the Virginia Democratic Party? Where are we? What are our strengths and where can we improve?
Strengths:
1. Candidate recruitment at the local level
Taking a look around at the ‘05 HoD races, I see tons of strong candidates on the Democratic side and many weak candidates on the GOP side. Many were not victorious, but the fact that we mounted credible races should not be forgotten. Christopher, Werkheiser, Fulk, and Ferguson are all strong candidates who ran great campaigns, despite the fact that things did not turn out as they expected. Roemmelt gave Bob Marshall a run for his money in a tough district. Look for all of these people to play a role in the future for the Democrats. Bulova, Marsden, and Poisson all ran great campaigns.
2. Strategy at the statewide level
Byrne, Kaine, and Deeds could not have run better campaigns. Byrne overcame the “liberal” label to run close to a Republican who held his base. Deeds overcame a late surge by McDonnell and is now locked in a tight recount situation. Instead of trying to emulate Mark Warner’s ‘01 race, Kaine ran his own race and made a strong play for the exurbs that will serve the Democrats well in the future.
3. Possession of the Governor’s mansion during an economic boom
We took the Governor’s mansion at the exact right time in the economic cycle. A strong economy and plenty of tax revenue should allow us to do two things (at the same time):
1. Give funding to Virginia’s critical needs
2. Cut some taxes and retain the VDP’s moderate image
4. The Senate
The VA Senate is packed full of liberal Republicans who will work with Kaine. Until the Republicans purge the RINOs from their party, they’ll continue the infighting and mixed messaging. Of course, it will take some vicious infighting to purge the RINOs, but that’s to be expected.
5. The looming return of Jim Gilmore
If Gilmore steps back into the spotlight, the future is bright for Democrats
Weaknesses:
1. No bench
We’re going to need to pull statewide candidates out of our asses in ‘09. Meanwhile, it would be disgraceful if we allowed two straight Senators to run unchallenged.
2. Weak fundraising
Republicans continue to pull in way more money than us. One Virginia made up a bit of that difference, but as Mark Warner’s presence fades away and his attention turns to ‘08, we might be in trouble…
3. Huge ideological minority in the House
We may have picked up 2 seats in the House, but we also lost a couple of moderate Republicans (Dillard and Reese). The overall change in partisan tilt is minimal, although losing Dick Black and Brad Marrs helps a bit.
4. Strong Republican bench
The Republicans have the opposite problem on their bench - too many people vying for too few statewide seats. This will be a problem for us in ‘08 and ‘09.
5. Growing influence of the NOVA liberal wing of the party
We now have a game plan for winning in Virginia, and it involves running moderate candidates. The candidates who can run strong in the rural areas (rare) can concentrate there, while the urban candidates can rack up big margins in the urban and suburban areas. If we change courses and allow NOVA to pick all of our nominees, we’ll be saddled with liberals who cannot win. The Virginia Democratic Party cannot afford to allow NOVA liberals to run the show.
Question marks:
1. Will Tim Kaine govern like a liberal or a moderate? Will he resist the urge to raise the gas tax?
2. Who will step forward and run in ‘06, ‘08, and ‘09?
3. Will the Republicans wise up and start nominating Davis’s and Connaughton’s?
4. Will liberals take control of the VDP?
5. Will immigration ever be a viable issue for Republicans in NOVA?
6. Will Roe v. Wade be overturned, changing the political landscape at the state level?
7. Will it be Allen v. Warner (in some shape or form) in ‘09?
Here it is folks:
Most people are willing to say that the Presidential nomination is Hillary’s for the taking, unless an anti-Hillary candidate emerges and Democrat coalesce around this person. I’m willing to go further than that. If Hillary Clinton seeks the nomination, she CANNOT be denied it.
1. A large chunk of females in the Democratic Party support her and probably won’t consider supporting anyone else.
2. For a candidate like Hillary (huge name ID, huge popularity amongst Democrats, huge war chest) to be denied the nomination, party operatives would have to mount an anti-Hillary campaign and back another candidate. This will not happen.
Why not? Because bashing Hillary would be paramount to bashing Bill Clinton, and Democratic Party operatives would never turn against Bill Clinton. If Hillary decides to run, she will run on the Bill Clinton legacy (balanced budgets, entitlement reform, peace and prosperity). Democrats will not and cannot attack that legacy.
My great-grandmother turned 91 today. Happy birthday, Great Grandma. May your amazing genes carry you forward.